Pondosa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

378
FXUS66 KMFR 060520
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
920 PM PST Thu Feb 5 2026

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...

Another day of high pressure across southern Oregon and northern
California. Temperatures have warmed up significantly over the
last hour and areas near Ashland are in the lower 70`s with
Buckhorn RAWS reporting 73 as of writing this discussion. It also
looks like the Alturas and Klamath Falls temperature records will
fall this afternoon based on the latest ASOS readings.

The ridge will begin to breakdown later tonight as a shortwave
approaches the Oregon coast. Fog remains in the forecast tonight
within the Umpqua and Illinois Valley. Dewpoints remain rather
high and plenty of moisture lingers in the boundary layer within
those valleys. We`ll let the next shifts determine if the fog
will be dense as the inversion will weaken some and the dewpoints
could drop a bit as we mix this afternoon. In any case, pretty
confident fog will occur later tonight.

As the ridge weakens, temperatures should trend downwards by about
5 to perhaps 10 degrees in some locations. Some high clouds ahead
of the next system should also dampen the temperatures a bit.

Eventually by this weekend, we`ll see a cold front and weak
atmospheric river(AR) target the region Saturday night into
Sunday. Integrated water vapor transport(IVT) values peak around
500 along the Oregon coast. These are pretty typical values for
this time of year and what we usually see with ARs and frontal
passages. Nothing is popping out on the extreme forecast
index(EFI) with regards to QPF. Snow accumulation will likely be
around 4 to 6 inches in the higher Cascades, although there is
still good variability in the ensemble members. Some members are
showing about 12 inches of snow accumulation and that has about a
10% chance of happening. Consequently, others are showing barely 2
inches and that has about 10% chance as well. So odds are we`ll
see some snow, but the amounts are still up in the air.

Eventually, a deep trough kicks through the forecast area Tuesday
night with the AR shifting farther south into the Sierras of
California. It looks like it will be just showers for most of the
forecast area early next week. However, there is a 20% chance of
1 to perhaps 3 inches of snow around Modoc County as this trough
moves through with light snow over other elevated areas.

We should have a quick dry period around Thursday before the
pattern remains unsettled. Its hard to find individual ensemble
members not producing precipitation towards the end of next
weekend with more rain and snow for the area.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs...Generally clear skies are keeping levels
across northern California and southern Oregon at VFR tonight.
Clouds moving up from the south look to bring periods of IFR to LIFR
levels to the Oregon coast, with ceilings forecast to raise to
IFR/MVFR elevations later in the day Friday. With inland conditions
persisting, valley fog is expected in the Umpqua Valley, with
clearing before Friday afternoon. Other areas are expected to remain
at VFR through the TAF period. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Thursday, February 5, 2026...Steep
west swell will persist today, then south winds increase and
additional swell arrives through this weekend with the approach and
arrival of a cold front. This front will produce increased south
winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain this
weekend.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS...An incoming west to southwest long period
swell will produce an increased chance for sneaker waves along the
southern Oregon coast. The threat, while moderate, should be
emphasized due to the pleasant and warmer than normal weather, and
the weekend, which both could draw more visitors to area beaches.

Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther up beaches than
normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly
knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The
waves can also move logs or other   objects which could crush or
trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any
time,  the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of
the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. The high tides will
occur roughly between 2 and 3 AM and again around 2 to 3 PM PST
Friday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$